The UK won’t remain a part of the European Union from 11 PM on March 29, 2019.  An exit deal is being sketched out between the UK and EU nations. However, if it does not turn into a treaty between the two, the UK won’t remain committed to following any of the EU regulations.  Citizen rights, travel arrangements, customs, and of course, the trade would be affected. 

The most worrisome aspect is that the transition period from March 2019 to December 2020 won’t be in place either. This means organizations and businesses from both sides won’t get the grace period to bring everything in place. 

But, the air is undoubtedly positive according to David Allen Green, one of the prominent Brexit commentators. If negotiations continue positively even without an exit agreement, the chances are that the 27 EU members would give two year negotiation period for the benefit of everyone.  Smaller arrangements for travelers and essential items can surely be made between the two parties according to experts. 

Shortage of goods and price rise 

Currently, the European Union nations, as well as the United Kingdom, enjoy zero-tariff trading. There are no customs checks involved when it comes to trade or travel. However, after the Brexit, in the absence of a bilateral trade agreement between the two parties, the World Trade Organization’s trading rules would apply to both. It means price rise, shortage of goods for exporters and importers.  

According to the research work carried out by the Brexit department formed by the UK, an unplanned exit can prove to be disastrous. The study pointed out that if present agreements are withdrawn, at least food and medicine woes would grip Britain within a fortnight from the exit.  Government officials and politicians reacted on the study saying they already have a contingency plan in place. Medicines and food items will be stockpiled, and a particular provision is to be made at the A20 Dover as a part of the project. 

Citizens from both sides will have to relocate in case of a no-deal situation 

Estimates indicate that around one million British citizens live in various parts of the EU. On the other hand, three million individuals from the European Union nations live in the UK at present. Citizens from both parts have invested handsomely in real estate as well. In the case of a no-deal scenario, millions of people from both sides would have to kiss goodbye to their jobs and relocate. 

The status of EU citizens in the UK will remain anomalous and will result in a political as well as legal limbo. British citizens in the European Union nations will have to abide by the rules that the country they are living in decides.  As of now, the British Government claims they have plans for residents from EU as well as their people that are in EU 27 nations. But, no idea has been discussed or debated in public yet. Without any agreement in place, the event is set to cause a significant disruption in everyone’s life. 

Both, the Euro and British Pound have been moving downward since the Brexit vote. The moving average indicator offers an exciting insight into the movements of both currencies. 

Government officials seem optimistic 

The government seems to be on Prime Minister May’s side, there better be no-deal instead of a bad deal. Officials seem optimistic about setting the house to make sure no one suffers.

All the leave supporters are urging the government to be prepared so that nothing would matter even in case if there is no deal in place until the exit day. Even backbench Brexiteers look at it as an opportunity instead of a threat. 

The CEO of Leave EU, Liz Bilney thinks it’s a positive sign and Britain will be prosperous and fairer for Brits after the exit. 

Critics want the prime minister to sign an agreement as soon as possible to avoid a shortage of essential food items, chaos at the border, and trade disaster for businesses.  

The Conservative leader, former attorney general Dominic Grieve has warned the government that without a proper deal, the exit might prove to be catastrophic. The condition would be like in the state of emergency. 

Perhaps, the scariest comment was made by Doug Gurr, the Amazon UK’s chief. He said without a trade deal, Britain might have to face civil unrest immediately after the exit. 

Political reactions 

The European Union wants Northern Ireland to remain a part of the customs union. But, British Prime Minister Theresa May said she won't agree on this ever as it would put the UK's union at risk. She made it clear that no additional barriers would be developed between Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom unless the Northern Ireland Assembly and executive ask to do so.  The far-right leader Jacob Rees-Mogg appreciated May’s firm stand on the issue. Usually, he is known as May's worst critic.

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling recently interacted with the BBC. He said there wouldn’t be any deal possible if the Northern Ireland and the European Union does not negotiate on the terms that they are looking for in the agreement. 

Leaders feel the European Union’s treatment meted out to Theresa May during their interaction in Salzburg is making the narrative of Brexit hardliners sound right. 

Another MP, Stephen Crabb expressed a similar opinion and said the exit formalities are a circus that Britain should exit as soon as possible. 

Writer, political columnist Stephen Bush believe the EU nations think the UK is in a weaker position and can be forced to go for negotiations that would benefit the European Union more.  They want the current level of market access to the UK without compromising anything from their side. 

Bush compared the struggle between the United Kingdome and the European Union as a head-on collision between a lorry and a British motorbike. He believes that the UK must accept it is a smaller vehicle and get out of the lorry’s way. However, Britain’s politicians think they are equal in weight. Thus, a no-deal scenario can arise and remain the same until the exit date.